Goldman sees copper, aluminum sliding amid cos

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Goldman sees copper, aluminum sliding amid cos

Author:Shanghai Yika Addtime:2015/10/16

SHANGHAI,Oct.9 (SMM) - The following table is base metals movement on the SHFE market on Oct.9 2015.

Contract Open High Low Close Settle Ch1 Ch2 Volume Position Change
Al1510 11385 11580 11385 11545 11485 -5 -65 10580 38800 -5710
Al1511 11460 11610 11375 11610 11495 65 -50 20270 72774 -4566
Al1512 11465 11635 11380 11600 11500 45 -55 93630 159706 -1448
Al1601 11500 11660 11390 11625 11525 35 -65 44708 79900 6428
Cu1510 38190 40340 38190 40210 39700 800 290 27860 30950 -8070
Cu1511 39010 40330 38790 40180 39610 850 280 274576 116704 -11388
Cu1512 38890 40270 38630 40090 39580 930 420 602558 218306 -29310
Cu1601 38780 40180 38520 40000 39530 960 490 109190 101820 3220
Zn1510 14200 14480 13835 14420 14245 515 340 6250 11790 -1790
Zn1511 13740 14450 13680 14400 14110 575 285 137248 68630 -9242
Zn1512 13650 14400 13585 14295 14080 560 345 520302 162322 13388
Zn1601 13615 14340 13515 14260 14020 595 355 104944 60856 3970
Pb1510 13505 13650 13505 13535 13545 35 45 1280 1430 -1060
Pb1511 13345 13690 13115 13550 13500 100 50 6108 10992 -702
Ni1510 76670 78300 76670 78300 77450 2070 1220 228 1500 144
Ni1511 76920 78660 76830 78660 77670 1690 700 290 1166 114
Ni1512 77110 78940 77090 78880 77520 1690 330 144 488 70
Sn1510 96580 97600 95150 97400 96800 490 -110 132 448 12
Sn1601 98100 99280 97170 99100 98450 780 130 1146 1236 186
Note:
    1. Unit for offers: RMB/mt
    2. Unit for trade: 5 mt/lot
    3. Unit for trading volumes, positions, and changes in positions is   lot.
    4. Ch1 = Close - Previous Settle; ch2 = Settle - Previous Settle
SHANGHAI,Oct.9 (SMM) - The following table is base metals   movement on the SHFE market on Oct.9 2015.

Contract Open High Low Close Settle Ch1 Ch2 Volume Position Change
Al1510 11385 11580 11385 11545 11485 -5 -65 10580 38800 -5710
Al1511 11460 11610 11375 11610 11495 65 -50 20270 72774 -4566
Al1512 11465 11635 11380 11600 11500 45 -55 93630 159706 -1448
Al1601 11500 11660 11390 11625 11525 35 -65 44708 79900 6428
Cu1510 38190 40340 38190 40210 39700 800 290 27860 30950 -8070
Cu1511 39010 40330 38790 40180 39610 850 280 274576 116704 -11388
Cu1512 38890 40270 38630 40090 39580 930 420 602558 218306 -29310
Cu1601 38780 40180 38520 40000 39530 960 490 109190 101820 3220
Zn1510 14200 14480 13835 14420 14245 515 340 6250 11790 -1790
Zn1511 13740 14450 13680 14400 14110 575 285 137248 68630 -9242
Zn1512 13650 14400 13585 14295 14080 560 345 520302 162322 13388
Zn1601 13615 14340 13515 14260 14020 595 355 104944 60856 3970
Pb1510 13505 13650 13505 13535 13545 35 45 1280 1430 -1060
Pb1511 13345 13690 13115 13550 13500 100 50 6108 10992 -702
Ni1510 76670 78300 76670 78300 77450 2070 1220 228 1500 144
Ni1511 76920 78660 76830 78660 77670 1690 700 290 1166 114
Ni1512 77110 78940 77090 78880 77520 1690 330 144 488 70
Sn1510 96580 97600 95150 97400 96800 490 -110 132 448 12
Sn1601 98100 99280 97170 99100 98450 780 130 1146 1236 186
Note:
    1. Unit for offers: RMB/mt
    2. Unit for trade: 5 mt/lot
    3. Unit for trading volumes, positions, and changes in positions is   lot.
    4. Ch1 = Close - Previous Settle; ch2 = Settle - Previous Settle
By Paul Ploumis 09 Oct 2015 Last updated at 07:23:07 GMT

For Goldman Sachs Group Inc., copper and aluminum will continue to decline as a strong dollar, lower energy prices and China's deleveraging help drive down production costs.

China's shift away from a metals-intensive, investment-led growth model will probably be permanent, damping consumption, and demand in the biggest user will likely continue to be hurt by a substantial overhang of debt and property inventory and further strength in the dollar, bank analysts Max Layton, Yubin Fu, Mikhail Sprogis and Jeff Currie wrote in a report dated October 8.

Industrial metals prices have slumped 19 per cent on the London Metal Exchange this year amid the slowest Chinese expansion in a generation. The International Monetary Fund cut this week its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3.1 per cent from 3.3 per cent estimated in July.

"A multi-year strong dollar and emerging-market deleveraging environment has only just begun," the analysts wrote before the start of the annual LME week in London Oct. 12. "Together with the impact of the shale revolution in lowering energy prices, the strong dollar environment and China deleveraging are contributing to self-reinforcing cost deflation."

Broadly Flat

The bank expects zinc and nickel prices to be broadly flat from current levels, the analysts wrote in the report before Glencore Plc announced plans on Friday to cut zinc production by about a third by suspending or reducing output from mines in Australia, Peru and Kazakhstan. It lowered its price forecast for 2016 to $10,333 a metric ton for nickel from $14,500 and to $1,700 a ton for zinc from $2,383. Lead was cut to $1,650 a ton from $2,083.

The biggest risk to the bank's bear case is that China's property market recovers earlier than it expects, the analysts said.

Goldman reiterated earlier views that the copper bear market has years to run and sees a series of bearish catalysts around the turn of the year and into the first quarter, including a US interest rate increase, a stockpile build, lower oil prices and lack of a sufficient pickup in Chinese demand.

The bank also repeated its view in a report published August 10 that aluminum producers face the longest period of pain in a generation with increasing global surpluses through 2018.

SHANGHAI,Oct.9 (SMM) - The following table is base metals movement on the SHFE market on Oct.9 2015.

More Information: YIKAI Aluminum